GRND
Grindr Inc.
$15.28
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 44.5% below fair value
You pay
$15.28
Bear
$14.29
Fair
$27.54
Bull
$44.18
Bear
$14.29
-6.5%
12% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$27.54
+80.2%
20% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$44.18
+189.1%
26% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Adjust Assumptions
20.0%
11.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (20% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
46%
Implied Market Multiple
26.6x
Market is pricing in (growth)
12.8%
vs 20.0% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (7 analysts)
$19.00
Divergence from AlphaVal
45%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 20% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $27.54 per share.
Warnings
Stock-based employee pay equals 58% of profits. This dilutes existing shareholders, so cash flow alone overstates what owners really earn.
Wall Street's average price target is $19.00 (from 7 analysts). Our estimate is 45% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions