GRAB
Grab Holdings Limited
$3.42
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 92.8% above fair value
You pay
$3.42
Bear
$1.52
Fair
$1.77
Bull
$2.09
Bear
$1.52
-55.6%
12% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$1.77
-48.1%
19% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$2.09
-38.9%
25% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Adjust Assumptions
19.3%
11.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (19% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
46%
Implied Market Multiple
167.4x
Market is pricing in (growth)
37.5%
vs 19.3% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (12 analysts)
$5.95
Divergence from AlphaVal
70%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 19% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $1.77 per share.
Warnings
Stock-based employee pay equals 90% of profits. This dilutes existing shareholders, so cash flow alone overstates what owners really earn.
Wall Street's average price target is $5.95 (from 12 analysts). Our estimate is 70% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions