GBCI
Glacier Bancorp, Inc.
$47.66
Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers
85%
P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality
Moderate
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 18.9% above fair value
You pay
$47.66
Bear
$28.07
Fair
$40.10
Bull
$52.13
Bear
$28.07
-41.1%
ROTCE 6.6% → 0.58x TBV
Fair
$40.10
-15.9%
ROTCE 8.8% → 1.07x TBV
Bull
$52.13
+9.4%
ROTCE 10.1% → 1.37x TBV
Key Value Driver
ROTCE (8.8%) vs. cost of equity (8.4%)
Implied Market Multiple
2.27x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $57.33 from 14 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $40.10 per share.
Warnings
Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
Wall Street's average price target is $57.33 (from 14 analysts). Our estimate is 38% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
- Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
- Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly