GBCI
Glacier Bancorp, Inc.
$43.83
Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers
85%
P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality
Moderate
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 22.5% above fair value
You pay
$43.83
Bear
$25.05
Fair
$35.79
Bull
$46.53
Bear
$25.05
-42.8%
ROTCE 6.6% → 0.57x TBV
Fair
$35.79
-18.3%
ROTCE 8.8% → 1.05x TBV
Bull
$46.53
+6.2%
ROTCE 10.1% → 1.34x TBV
Adjust Assumptions
8.8%
8.5%
Key Value Driver
ROTCE (8.8%) vs. cost of equity (8.5%)
Implied Market Multiple
2.09x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (14 analysts)
$57.00
Divergence from AlphaVal
37%
Summary
With ROTCE of 8.8% vs. 8.5% cost of equity, fair P/TBV is 1.05x on $20.97 tangible book, implying $35.79 per share. DDM cross-check: $32.50.
Warnings
Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
Wall Street's average price target is $57.00 (from 14 analysts). Our estimate is 37% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
- Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
- Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly