FWONK
Liberty Media Corporation
$99.20
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Moderate
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 38.7% above fair value
You pay
$99.20
Bear
$44.01
Fair
$71.53
Bull
$99.91
Bear
$44.01
-55.6%
7% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$71.53
-27.9%
12% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$99.91
+0.7%
16% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (12% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
40%
Implied Market Multiple
39.3x
Market is pricing in (growth)
18.0%
vs 11.9% base
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $115.60 from 25 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $71.53 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $115.60 (from 25 analysts). Our estimate is 51% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions