FWONK
Formula One Group
$88.56
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Moderate
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 21.3% above fair value
You pay
$88.56
Bear
$44.54
Fair
$72.99
Bull
$102.51
Bear
$44.54
-49.7%
7% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$72.99
-17.6%
12% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$102.51
+15.8%
16% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (12% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
41%
Implied Market Multiple
35.7x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $117.20 from 24 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $72.99 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $117.20 (from 24 analysts). Our estimate is 50% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions