FWONK
Liberty Media Corporation
$89.13
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Moderate
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 29.4% above fair value
You pay
$89.13
Bear
$40.51
Fair
$68.89
Bull
$99.40
Bear
$40.51
-54.5%
8% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$68.89
-22.7%
14% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$99.40
+11.5%
18% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Adjust Assumptions
13.6%
11.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (14% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
42%
Implied Market Multiple
34.8x
Market is pricing in (growth)
16.4%
vs 13.6% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (25 analysts)
$136.63
Divergence from AlphaVal
50%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 14% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $68.89 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $136.63 (from 25 analysts). Our estimate is 50% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions