FWONA
Formula One Group
$81.91
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Moderate
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 15.7% above fair value
You pay
$81.91
Bear
$43.20
Fair
$70.78
Bull
$99.41
Bear
$43.20
-47.3%
7% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$70.78
-13.6%
12% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$99.41
+21.4%
16% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (12% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
41%
Implied Market Multiple
33.4x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $108.00 from 19 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $70.78 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $108.00 (from 19 analysts). Our estimate is 46% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions