FWONA
Formula One Group
$93.88
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Moderate
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 34.8% above fair value
You pay
$93.88
Bear
$42.84
Fair
$69.63
Bull
$97.25
Bear
$42.84
-54.4%
7% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$69.63
-25.8%
12% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$97.25
+3.6%
16% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (12% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
40%
Implied Market Multiple
37.5x
Market is pricing in (growth)
17.4%
vs 11.9% base
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $108.00 from 20 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $69.63 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $108.00 (from 20 analysts). Our estimate is 47% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions