FWONA
Formula One Group
$83.32
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Moderate
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 20.9% above fair value
You pay
$83.32
Bear
$40.53
Fair
$68.92
Bull
$99.44
Bear
$40.53
-51.4%
8% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$68.92
-17.3%
14% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$99.44
+19.3%
18% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Adjust Assumptions
13.6%
11.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (14% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
42%
Implied Market Multiple
32.9x
Market is pricing in (growth)
15.6%
vs 13.6% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (20 analysts)
$119.50
Divergence from AlphaVal
42%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 14% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $68.92 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $119.50 (from 20 analysts). Our estimate is 42% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions