FR
First Industrial Realty Trust, Inc.
$63.28
Real Estate Investment Trust
85%
P/FFO × Industrial REIT Multiple
Moderate
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 19.0% below fair value
You pay
$63.28
Bear
$63.95
Fair
$78.16
Bull
$92.37
Bear
$63.95
+1.1%
$3.26 FFO × 21x
Fair
$78.16
+23.5%
$3.26 FFO × 25x
Bull
$92.37
+46.0%
$3.26 FFO × 30x
Key Value Driver
FFO/share ($3.26) × industrial P/FFO multiple
Implied Market Multiple
19.4x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses P/FFO × Industrial REIT Multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $65.13 from 29 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $78.16 per share.
Warnings
Standard profit figures are misleading for real estate companies — large non-cash accounting charges make profits look artificially low. Dividend yield and funds from operations are better measures.
Wall Street's average price target is $65.13 (from 29 analysts). Our estimate is 27% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E and EV/EBITDA are structurally wrong for REITs — use P/FFO and NAV
- Interest rate sensitivity: REIT multiples compress when rates rise
- FFO approximation (NI + D&A) may include gains on property sales — verify