FL Foot Locker, Inc.
$24.01
Stable Earnings Power 40%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Strong · Conviction

Undervalued

Trading 46.6% below fair value

You pay $24.01
Bear $35.95
Fair $44.94
Bull $53.93
Bear $35.95 +49.7% $3.61 × 12x P/E
Fair $44.94 +87.2% $3.61 × 15x P/E
Bull $53.93 +124.6% $3.61 × 18x P/E

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 6.7x

Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $27.95 from 52 analysts, using a 35% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $44.94 per share.

Warnings

The company's reported profits differ from official accounting profits by 2674%. Check what costs are being left out of the adjusted number.
The company pays out 1231% of its profits as dividends. That leaves little cushion — the dividend could be cut if business slows down.
Dividend-based valuation: $27.14 (below our primary estimate by 50%). Large gaps may signal the dividend doesn't reflect full earning power.
Wall Street's average price target is $27.95 (from 52 analysts). Our estimate is 94% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples