EXE
Expand Energy Corporation
$97.94
Oil & Gas E&P
85%
FCF at Price Deck × Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 70.1% above fair value
You pay
$97.94
Bear
$13.83
Fair
$57.59
Bull
$115.92
Bear
$13.83
-85.9%
FCF $737M × 8x
Fair
$57.59
-41.2%
FCF $1053M × 11x
Bull
$115.92
+18.4%
FCF $1369M × 14x
Key Value Driver
Oil price assumption ($75/bbl base case)
Implied Market Multiple
26.1x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on free cash flow under different commodity price assumptions and a valuation multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $136.50 from 20 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $57.59 per share.
Warnings
If oil drops to $60/barrel, the stock could fall -92%. Check whether the company can survive at low prices and still pay its dividend.
Where you think oil prices will settle long-term drives over 80% of this valuation. The biggest risk isn't the company itself — it's getting the commodity price wrong.
Wall Street's average price target is $136.50 (from 20 analysts). Our estimate is 77% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — commodity volumes do not compound
- Geopolitical premiums are real but historically temporary
- Reserve replacement ratio below 100% for 3 years is existential