EXE
Expand Energy Corporation
$88.22
Oil & Gas E&P
85%
FCF at Price Deck × Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 114.0% above fair value
You pay
$88.22
Bear
$12.29
Fair
$41.22
Bull
$79.80
Bear
$12.29
-86.1%
FCF $868M × 8x
Fair
$41.22
-53.3%
FCF $1240M × 11x
Bull
$79.80
-9.5%
FCF $1612M × 14x
Adjust Assumptions
75.0$/bbl
11.0x
Key Value Driver
Oil price assumption ($75/bbl base case)
Implied Market Multiple
19.8x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (22 analysts)
$123.08
Divergence from AlphaVal
67%
Summary
At $75/bbl oil with a 11x EV/FCF multiple, intrinsic value is $41.22 per share. Range: $12.29 (bear) to $79.80 (bull).
Warnings
If oil drops to $60/barrel, the stock could fall -86%. Check whether the company can survive at low prices and still pay its dividend.
Where you think oil prices will settle long-term drives over 80% of this valuation. The biggest risk isn't the company itself — it's getting the commodity price wrong.
Wall Street's average price target is $123.08 (from 22 analysts). Our estimate is 67% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — commodity volumes do not compound
- Geopolitical premiums are real but historically temporary
- Reserve replacement ratio below 100% for 3 years is existential