EXE
Expand Energy Corporation
$88.58
Oil & Gas E&P
85%
FCF at Price Deck × Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 59.0% above fair value
You pay
$88.58
Bear
$13.38
Fair
$55.71
Bull
$112.15
Bear
$13.38
-84.9%
FCF $737M × 8x
Fair
$55.71
-37.1%
FCF $1053M × 11x
Bull
$112.15
+26.6%
FCF $1369M × 14x
Key Value Driver
Oil price assumption ($75/bbl base case)
Implied Market Multiple
24.0x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on free cash flow under different commodity price assumptions and a valuation multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $129.00 from 20 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $55.71 per share.
Warnings
If oil drops to $60/barrel, the stock could fall -92%. Check whether the company can survive at low prices and still pay its dividend.
Where you think oil prices will settle long-term drives over 80% of this valuation. The biggest risk isn't the company itself — it's getting the commodity price wrong.
Wall Street's average price target is $129.00 (from 20 analysts). Our estimate is 76% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — commodity volumes do not compound
- Geopolitical premiums are real but historically temporary
- Reserve replacement ratio below 100% for 3 years is existential