EWCZ
European Wax Center, Inc.
$5.82
Platform & Compounding FCF
65%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 42.3% below fair value
You pay
$5.82
Bear
$7.92
Fair
$10.08
Bull
$11.95
Bear
$7.92
+36.2%
3% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Fair
$10.08
+73.3%
5% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Bull
$11.95
+105.3%
7% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Adjust Assumptions
5.3%
12.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (5% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
31%
Implied Market Multiple
9.8x
Market is pricing in (growth)
0.7%
vs 5.3% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (8 analysts)
$7.96
Divergence from AlphaVal
27%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 5% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 12%, the base-case intrinsic value is $10.08 per share.
Warnings
Stock-based employee pay equals 75% of profits. This dilutes existing shareholders, so cash flow alone overstates what owners really earn.
Wall Street's average price target is $7.96 (from 8 analysts). Our estimate is 27% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions