EQNR
Equinor ASA
$44.09
Oil & Gas E&P
85%
FCF at Price Deck × Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 51.3% below fair value
You pay
$44.09
Bear
$55.61
Fair
$90.58
Bull
$132.79
Bear
$55.61
+26.1%
FCF $12254M × 12x
Fair
$90.58
+105.4%
FCF $14416M × 16x
Bull
$132.79
+201.2%
FCF $16579M × 20x
Adjust Assumptions
75.0$/bbl
16.0x
Key Value Driver
Oil price assumption ($75/bbl base case)
Implied Market Multiple
8.3x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (23 analysts)
$36.50
Divergence from AlphaVal
148%
Summary
At $75/bbl oil with a 16x EV/FCF multiple, intrinsic value is $90.58 per share. Range: $55.61 (bear) to $132.79 (bull).
Warnings
Where you think oil prices will settle long-term drives over 80% of this valuation. The biggest risk isn't the company itself — it's getting the commodity price wrong.
Wall Street's average price target is $36.50 (from 23 analysts). Our estimate is 148% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — commodity volumes do not compound
- Geopolitical premiums are real but historically temporary
- Reserve replacement ratio below 100% for 3 years is existential