EQNR
Equinor ASA
$32.38
Oil & Gas E&P
85%
FCF at Price Deck × Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 54.9% below fair value
You pay
$32.38
Bear
$44.05
Fair
$71.82
Bull
$105.33
Bear
$44.05
+36.0%
FCF $12007M × 12x
Fair
$71.82
+121.8%
FCF $14126M × 16x
Bull
$105.33
+225.3%
FCF $16245M × 20x
Key Value Driver
Oil price assumption ($75/bbl base case)
Implied Market Multiple
6.8x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on free cash flow under different commodity price assumptions and a valuation multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $36.50 from 23 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $71.82 per share.
Warnings
Where you think oil prices will settle long-term drives over 80% of this valuation. The biggest risk isn't the company itself — it's getting the commodity price wrong.
Wall Street's average price target is $36.50 (from 23 analysts). Our estimate is 129% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — commodity volumes do not compound
- Geopolitical premiums are real but historically temporary
- Reserve replacement ratio below 100% for 3 years is existential