EPR
EPR Properties
$62.21
Real Estate Investment Trust
85%
P/FFO × Specialty REIT Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 47.9% below fair value
You pay
$62.21
Bear
$97.55
Fair
$119.51
Bull
$141.46
Bear
$97.55
+56.8%
$5.80 FFO × 27x
Fair
$119.51
+92.1%
$5.80 FFO × 33x
Bull
$141.46
+127.4%
$5.80 FFO × 39x
Key Value Driver
FFO/share ($5.80) × specialty P/FFO multiple
Implied Market Multiple
10.7x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses P/FFO × Specialty REIT Multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $63.70 from 22 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $119.51 per share.
Warnings
Standard profit figures are misleading for real estate companies — large non-cash accounting charges make profits look artificially low. Dividend yield and funds from operations are better measures.
The 2.0% yield is low for a real estate company — investors are paying up because they expect above-average growth.
Dividend-based valuation: $19.42 (86% below our primary estimate). Large gaps suggest the dividend may not fully reflect the company's value.
Wall Street's average price target is $63.70 (from 22 analysts). Our estimate is 117% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E and EV/EBITDA are structurally wrong for REITs — use P/FFO and NAV
- Interest rate sensitivity: REIT multiples compress when rates rise
- FFO approximation (NI + D&A) may include gains on property sales — verify