EPR
EPR Properties
$59.61
Real Estate Investment Trust
85%
P/FFO × Specialty REIT Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 56.8% below fair value
You pay
$59.61
Bear
$112.60
Fair
$137.94
Bull
$163.29
Bear
$112.60
+88.9%
$5.80 FFO × 27x
Fair
$137.94
+131.4%
$5.80 FFO × 33x
Bull
$163.29
+173.9%
$5.80 FFO × 39x
Adjust Assumptions
32.6x
$
Key Value Driver
FFO/share ($5.80) × specialty P/FFO multiple
Implied Market Multiple
10.3x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (22 analysts)
$65.50
Divergence from AlphaVal
111%
Summary
At $5.80 FFO/share with a 33x specialty REIT multiple, the base-case value is $137.94 per share. Dividend yield: 2.1%. DDM cross-check: $18.88.
Warnings
Standard profit figures are misleading for real estate companies — large non-cash accounting charges make profits look artificially low. Dividend yield and funds from operations are better measures.
Dividend-based valuation: $18.88 (86% below our primary estimate). Large gaps suggest the dividend may not fully reflect the company's value.
Wall Street's average price target is $65.50 (from 22 analysts). Our estimate is 111% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E and EV/EBITDA are structurally wrong for REITs — use P/FFO and NAV
- Interest rate sensitivity: REIT multiples compress when rates rise
- FFO approximation (NI + D&A) may include gains on property sales — verify