EPR
EPR Properties
$58.62
Real Estate Investment Trust
85%
P/FFO × Specialty REIT Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 50.4% below fair value
You pay
$58.62
Bear
$96.53
Fair
$118.26
Bull
$139.99
Bear
$96.53
+64.7%
$5.80 FFO × 27x
Fair
$118.26
+101.7%
$5.80 FFO × 33x
Bull
$139.99
+138.8%
$5.80 FFO × 39x
Key Value Driver
FFO/share ($5.80) × specialty P/FFO multiple
Implied Market Multiple
10.1x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses P/FFO × Specialty REIT Multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $59.13 from 21 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $118.26 per share.
Warnings
Standard profit figures are misleading for real estate companies — large non-cash accounting charges make profits look artificially low. Dividend yield and funds from operations are better measures.
Dividend-based valuation: $18.97 (86% below our primary estimate). Large gaps suggest the dividend may not fully reflect the company's value.
Wall Street's average price target is $59.13 (from 21 analysts). Our estimate is 133% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E and EV/EBITDA are structurally wrong for REITs — use P/FFO and NAV
- Interest rate sensitivity: REIT multiples compress when rates rise
- FFO approximation (NI + D&A) may include gains on property sales — verify