EPR
EPR Properties
$55.71
Real Estate Investment Trust
85%
P/FFO × Specialty REIT Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 59.4% below fair value
You pay
$55.71
Bear
$112.13
Fair
$137.38
Bull
$162.63
Bear
$112.13
+101.3%
$5.79 FFO × 27x
Fair
$137.38
+146.6%
$5.79 FFO × 33x
Bull
$162.63
+191.9%
$5.79 FFO × 39x
Adjust Assumptions
32.6x
$
Key Value Driver
FFO/share ($5.79) × specialty P/FFO multiple
Implied Market Multiple
9.6x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (22 analysts)
$65.50
Divergence from AlphaVal
110%
Summary
At $5.79 FFO/share with a 33x specialty REIT multiple, the base-case value is $137.38 per share. Dividend yield: 2.2%. DDM cross-check: $17.89.
Warnings
Standard profit figures are misleading for real estate companies — large non-cash accounting charges make profits look artificially low. Dividend yield and funds from operations are better measures.
Dividend-based valuation: $17.89 (87% below our primary estimate). Large gaps suggest the dividend may not fully reflect the company's value.
Wall Street's average price target is $65.50 (from 22 analysts). Our estimate is 110% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E and EV/EBITDA are structurally wrong for REITs — use P/FFO and NAV
- Interest rate sensitivity: REIT multiples compress when rates rise
- FFO approximation (NI + D&A) may include gains on property sales — verify