ELF
e.l.f. Beauty, Inc.
$52.90
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Moderate
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 28.4% above fair value
You pay
$52.90
Bear
$27.17
Fair
$41.21
Bull
$54.93
Bear
$27.17
-48.6%
6% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Fair
$41.21
-22.1%
10% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Bull
$54.93
+3.8%
13% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (10% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
35%
Implied Market Multiple
30.1x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $76.75 from 27 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $41.21 per share.
Warnings
Stock-based employee pay equals 159% of profits. This dilutes existing shareholders, so cash flow alone overstates what owners really earn.
Wall Street's average price target is $76.75 (from 27 analysts). Our estimate is 62% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions