ELF
e.l.f. Beauty, Inc.
$109.23
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 105.7% above fair value
You pay
$109.23
Bear
$32.07
Fair
$53.10
Bull
$75.71
Bear
$32.07
-70.6%
8% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Fair
$53.10
-51.4%
14% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Bull
$75.71
-30.7%
18% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Adjust Assumptions
13.8%
12.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (14% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
38%
Implied Market Multiple
46.7x
Market is pricing in (growth)
22.4%
vs 13.8% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (29 analysts)
$95.91
Divergence from AlphaVal
45%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 14% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 12%, the base-case intrinsic value is $53.10 per share.
Warnings
Stock-based employee pay equals 330% of profits. This dilutes existing shareholders, so cash flow alone overstates what owners really earn.
Wall Street's average price target is $95.91 (from 29 analysts). Our estimate is 45% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions