DEI Douglas Emmett, Inc.
$11.46
Real Estate Investment Trust 85%
P/FFO × Office REIT Multiple
Strong · Conviction

Undervalued

Trading 48.9% below fair value

You pay $11.46
Bear $17.53
Fair $22.43
Bull $27.31
Bear $17.53 +53.0% $2.48 FFO × 10x
Fair $22.43 +95.7% $2.48 FFO × 13x
Bull $27.31 +138.3% $2.48 FFO × 16x

Key Value Driver

FFO/share ($2.48) × office P/FFO multiple

Implied Market Multiple 4.6x

Summary

Our base-case estimate uses P/FFO × Office REIT Multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $12.20 from 33 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $22.43 per share.

Warnings

Standard profit figures are misleading for real estate companies — large non-cash accounting charges make profits look artificially low. Dividend yield and funds from operations are better measures.
Dividend yield of 6.6% is unusually high — make sure the company generates enough cash to keep paying it.
Dividend-based valuation: $14.16 (47% below our primary estimate). Large gaps suggest the dividend may not fully reflect the company's value.
Wall Street's average price target is $12.20 (from 33 analysts). Our estimate is 120% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • P/E and EV/EBITDA are structurally wrong for REITs — use P/FFO and NAV
  • Interest rate sensitivity: REIT multiples compress when rates rise
  • FFO approximation (NI + D&A) may include gains on property sales — verify