DAVE
Dave Inc.
$353.40
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 56.2% below fair value
You pay
$353.40
Bear
$450.03
Fair
$806.85
Bull
$1,252.07
Bear
$450.03
+27.3%
12% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Fair
$806.85
+128.3%
20% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Bull
$1,252.07
+254.3%
26% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Adjust Assumptions
20.0%
12.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (20% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
42%
Implied Market Multiple
17.1x
Market is pricing in (growth)
8.6%
vs 20.0% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (13 analysts)
$435.11
Divergence from AlphaVal
85%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 20% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 12%, the base-case intrinsic value is $806.85 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $435.11 (from 13 analysts). Our estimate is 85% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions