DAVE
Dave Inc.
$400.75
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 42.5% below fair value
You pay
$400.75
Bear
$388.62
Fair
$696.69
Bull
$1,081.07
Bear
$388.62
-3.0%
12% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Fair
$696.69
+73.8%
20% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Bull
$1,081.07
+169.8%
26% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (20% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
42%
Implied Market Multiple
20.0x
Market is pricing in (growth)
10.8%
vs 20.0% base
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $351.80 from 11 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $696.69 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $351.80 (from 11 analysts). Our estimate is 123% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions