CXM
Sprinklr, Inc.
$5.69
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Moderate
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 29.8% below fair value
You pay
$5.69
Bear
$6.83
Fair
$8.10
Bull
$9.26
Bear
$6.83
+20.0%
5% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$8.10
+42.4%
8% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$9.26
+62.8%
10% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (8% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
37%
Implied Market Multiple
10.0x
Market is pricing in (growth)
-0.5%
vs 7.5% base
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $6.25 from 17 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $8.10 per share.
Warnings
Stock-based employee pay equals 369% of profits. This dilutes existing shareholders, so cash flow alone overstates what owners really earn.
Wall Street's average price target is $6.25 (from 17 analysts). Our estimate is 40% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions