CRSR
Corsair Gaming, Inc.
$14.27
Platform & Compounding FCF
50%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 151.1% above fair value
You pay
$14.27
Bear
$4.65
Fair
$5.68
Bull
$6.61
Bear
$4.65
-67.4%
4% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Fair
$5.68
-60.2%
7% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Bull
$6.61
-53.7%
9% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Adjust Assumptions
6.8%
12.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (7% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
32%
Implied Market Multiple
36.7x
Market is pricing in (growth)
19.1%
vs 6.8% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (11 analysts)
$12.40
Divergence from AlphaVal
54%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 7% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 12%, the base-case intrinsic value is $5.68 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $12.40 (from 11 analysts). Our estimate is 54% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions