COOP
Mr. Cooper Group Inc.
$210.79
Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers
90%
P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality
Moderate
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 37.9% above fair value
You pay
$210.79
Bear
$106.99
Fair
$152.85
Bull
$198.71
Bear
$106.99
-49.2%
ROTCE 10.4% → 1.03x TBV
Fair
$152.85
-27.5%
ROTCE 13.9% → 1.59x TBV
Bull
$198.71
-5.7%
ROTCE 16.0% → 1.92x TBV
Adjust Assumptions
13.9%
10.2%
Key Value Driver
ROTCE (13.9%) vs. cost of equity (10.2%)
Implied Market Multiple
2.8x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (12 analysts)
$118.43
Divergence from AlphaVal
29%
Summary
With ROTCE of 13.9% vs. 10.2% cost of equity, fair P/TBV is 1.59x on $75.21 tangible book, implying $152.85 per share.
Warnings
Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
Wall Street's average price target is $118.43 (from 12 analysts). Our estimate is 29% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
- Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
- Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly