CIVB
Civista Bancshares, Inc.
$29.04
Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers
85%
P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality
Moderate
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 22.7% below fair value
You pay
$29.04
Bear
$26.29
Fair
$37.56
Bull
$48.82
Bear
$26.29
-9.5%
ROTCE 8.7% → 1.19x TBV
Fair
$37.56
+29.3%
ROTCE 11.6% → 1.93x TBV
Bull
$48.82
+68.1%
ROTCE 13.3% → 2.38x TBV
Key Value Driver
ROTCE (11.6%) vs. cost of equity (7.9%)
Implied Market Multiple
1.51x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $30.00 from 8 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $37.56 per share.
Warnings
Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
Dividend-based valuation: $21.89 (45% below our primary estimate). Large gaps suggest the dividend may not fully reflect the company's value.
Wall Street's average price target is $30.00 (from 8 analysts). Our estimate is 32% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
- Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
- Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly