CIVB
Civista Bancshares, Inc.
$27.48
Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers
85%
P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality
Moderate
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 30.3% below fair value
You pay
$27.48
Bear
$27.61
Fair
$39.45
Bull
$51.28
Bear
$27.61
+0.5%
ROTCE 8.7% → 1.20x TBV
Fair
$39.45
+43.6%
ROTCE 11.6% → 1.95x TBV
Bull
$51.28
+86.6%
ROTCE 13.3% → 2.39x TBV
Adjust Assumptions
11.6%
7.9%
Key Value Driver
ROTCE (11.6%) vs. cost of equity (7.9%)
Implied Market Multiple
1.43x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (8 analysts)
$32.00
Divergence from AlphaVal
23%
Summary
With ROTCE of 11.6% vs. 7.9% cost of equity, fair P/TBV is 1.95x on $19.24 tangible book, implying $39.45 per share. DDM cross-check: $27.78.
Warnings
Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
Dividend-based valuation: $27.78 (30% below our primary estimate). Large gaps suggest the dividend may not fully reflect the company's value.
Key Risks
- Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
- Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
- Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly