CIVB
Civista Bancshares, Inc.
$25.46
Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers
85%
P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality
Moderate
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 31.1% below fair value
You pay
$25.46
Bear
$25.87
Fair
$36.96
Bull
$48.04
Bear
$25.87
+1.6%
ROTCE 8.7% → 1.19x TBV
Fair
$36.96
+45.2%
ROTCE 11.6% → 1.92x TBV
Bull
$48.04
+88.7%
ROTCE 13.3% → 2.36x TBV
Key Value Driver
ROTCE (11.6%) vs. cost of equity (7.9%)
Implied Market Multiple
1.32x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $27.00 from 8 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $36.96 per share.
Warnings
Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
Dividend-based valuation: $21.71 (45% below our primary estimate). Large gaps suggest the dividend may not fully reflect the company's value.
Wall Street's average price target is $27.00 (from 8 analysts). Our estimate is 46% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
- Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
- Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly