CBU
Community Bank System, Inc.
$58.63
Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers
85%
P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality
Moderate
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 16.2% below fair value
You pay
$58.63
Bear
$48.03
Fair
$69.95
Bull
$80.93
Bear
$48.03
-18.1%
ROTCE 14.8% → 2.37x TBV
Fair
$69.95
+19.3%
ROTCE 19.8% → 3.46x TBV
Bull
$80.93
+38.0%
ROTCE 22.8% → 4.00x TBV
Adjust Assumptions
19.8%
8.6%
Key Value Driver
ROTCE (19.8%) vs. cost of equity (8.6%)
Implied Market Multiple
2.9x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (12 analysts)
$70.00
Divergence from AlphaVal
0%
Summary
With ROTCE of 19.8% vs. 8.6% cost of equity, fair P/TBV is 3.46x on $20.23 tangible book, implying $69.95 per share. DDM cross-check: $29.00.
Warnings
Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
Dividend-based valuation: $29.00 (59% below our primary estimate). Large gaps suggest the dividend may not fully reflect the company's value.
Key Risks
- Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
- Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
- Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly