BYD
Boyd Gaming Corporation
$78.02
Platform & Compounding FCF
50%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 52.4% below fair value
You pay
$78.02
Bear
$139.54
Fair
$164.06
Bull
$186.13
Bear
$139.54
+78.9%
3% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$164.06
+110.3%
5% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$186.13
+138.6%
6% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Adjust Assumptions
4.8%
11.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (5% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
34%
Implied Market Multiple
8.3x
Market is pricing in (growth)
-3.3%
vs 4.8% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (38 analysts)
$91.63
Divergence from AlphaVal
79%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 5% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $164.06 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $91.63 (from 38 analysts). Our estimate is 79% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions