BYD
Boyd Gaming Corporation
$87.72
Platform & Compounding FCF
50%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Moderate
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 26.8% below fair value
You pay
$87.72
Bear
$98.15
Fair
$119.77
Bull
$138.44
Bear
$98.15
+11.9%
3% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$119.77
+36.5%
5% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$138.44
+57.8%
7% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (5% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
35%
Implied Market Multiple
11.1x
Market is pricing in (growth)
1.0%
vs 5.1% base
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $90.75 from 38 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $119.77 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $90.75 (from 38 analysts). Our estimate is 46% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions