BYD
Boyd Gaming Corporation
$79.31
Platform & Compounding FCF
50%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Moderate
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 35.2% below fair value
You pay
$79.31
Bear
$99.78
Fair
$122.47
Bull
$142.14
Bear
$99.78
+25.8%
3% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$122.47
+54.4%
5% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$142.14
+79.2%
7% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (5% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
35%
Implied Market Multiple
10.4x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $95.00 from 38 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $122.47 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $95.00 (from 38 analysts). Our estimate is 41% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions