BYD
Boyd Gaming Corporation
$72.30
Platform & Compounding FCF
50%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 55.8% below fair value
You pay
$72.30
Bear
$139.54
Fair
$163.40
Bull
$185.16
Bear
$139.54
+93.0%
3% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$163.40
+126.0%
5% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$185.16
+156.1%
6% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Adjust Assumptions
4.8%
11.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (5% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
34%
Implied Market Multiple
7.8x
Market is pricing in (growth)
-4.0%
vs 4.8% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (38 analysts)
$90.00
Divergence from AlphaVal
82%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 5% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $163.40 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $90.00 (from 38 analysts). Our estimate is 82% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions