BXMT
Blackstone Mortgage Trust, Inc.
$13.73
Real Estate Investment Trust
85%
P/FFO × Default REIT Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 48.9% below fair value
You pay
$13.73
Bear
$22.42
Fair
$26.89
Bull
$31.35
Bear
$22.42
+63.3%
$1.06 FFO × 18x
Fair
$26.89
+95.8%
$1.06 FFO × 22x
Bull
$31.35
+128.4%
$1.06 FFO × 26x
Adjust Assumptions
22.1x
$
Key Value Driver
FFO/share ($1.06) × default P/FFO multiple
Implied Market Multiple
13.0x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (18 analysts)
$19.50
Divergence from AlphaVal
38%
Summary
At $1.06 FFO/share with a 22x default REIT multiple, the base-case value is $26.89 per share. Dividend yield: 13.7%. DDM cross-check: $35.04.
Warnings
Standard profit figures are misleading for real estate companies — large non-cash accounting charges make profits look artificially low. Dividend yield and funds from operations are better measures.
Dividend yield of 13.7% is unusually high — make sure the company generates enough cash to keep paying it.
Dividend-based valuation: $35.04 (30% above our primary estimate). Large gaps suggest the dividend may not fully reflect the company's value.
Wall Street's average price target is $19.50 (from 18 analysts). Our estimate is 38% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E and EV/EBITDA are structurally wrong for REITs — use P/FFO and NAV
- Interest rate sensitivity: REIT multiples compress when rates rise
- FFO approximation (NI + D&A) may include gains on property sales — verify