BLFY Blue Foundry Bancorp
$13.24
Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers 85%
P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality
Strong · Conviction

Overvalued

Trading 193.0% above fair value

Bear $4.52 -65.9% ROTCE 4.0% → 0.30x TBV
Fair $4.52 -65.9% ROTCE -3.2% → 0.30x TBV
Bull $4.52 -65.9% ROTCE -3.7% → 0.30x TBV

Key Value Driver

ROTCE (-3.2%) vs. cost of equity (7.2%)

Implied Market Multiple 0.88x

Summary

With ROTCE of -3.2% vs. 7.2% cost of equity, fair P/TBV is 0.30x on $15.06 tangible book, implying $4.52 per share.

Warnings

Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
Return on equity (-3.2%) is below the minimum investors require (7.2%). This means the bank is worth less than the net assets on its books.

Key Risks

  • Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
  • Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
  • Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly