BLFY
Blue Foundry Bancorp
$13.24
Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers
85%
P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 193.0% above fair value
Bear
$4.52
-65.9%
ROTCE 4.0% → 0.30x TBV
Fair
$4.52
-65.9%
ROTCE -3.2% → 0.30x TBV
Bull
$4.52
-65.9%
ROTCE -3.7% → 0.30x TBV
Key Value Driver
ROTCE (-3.2%) vs. cost of equity (7.2%)
Implied Market Multiple
0.88x
Summary
With ROTCE of -3.2% vs. 7.2% cost of equity, fair P/TBV is 0.30x on $15.06 tangible book, implying $4.52 per share.
Warnings
Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
Return on equity (-3.2%) is below the minimum investors require (7.2%). This means the bank is worth less than the net assets on its books.
Key Risks
- Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
- Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
- Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly