BIDU
Baidu, Inc.
$77.20
Stable Earnings Power
40%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Mild
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 4.6% below fair value
You pay
$77.20
Bear
$64.77
Fair
$80.96
Bull
$97.15
Bear
$64.77
-16.1%
$5.40 × 12x P/E
Fair
$80.96
+4.9%
$5.40 × 15x P/E
Bull
$97.15
+25.8%
$5.40 × 18x P/E
Adjust Assumptions
15.0x
5.4$
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
14.3x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (53 analysts)
$116.40
Divergence from AlphaVal
30%
Summary
Applying a 15x P/E to adjusted EPS of $5.40, the base-case value is $80.96 per share.
Warnings
The company's reported profits differ from official accounting profits by 206%. Check what costs are being left out of the adjusted number.
Wall Street's average price target is $116.40 (from 53 analysts). Our estimate is 30% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Financial statements were converted from CNY into USD using USDCNY at 0.1499 USD per CNY.
This stock is 53% below its 52-week high, with weak or declining earnings. That combination often signals real trouble, even though the valuation below is based on other fundamentals.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples