BIDU Baidu, Inc.
$127.79
Stable Earnings Power 40%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Moderate · Conviction

Overvalued

Trading 18.5% above fair value

You pay $127.79
Bear $86.26
Fair $107.82
Bull $129.38
Bear $86.26 -32.5% $5.30 × 12x P/E
Fair $107.82 -15.6% $5.30 × 15x P/E
Bull $129.38 +1.2% $5.30 × 18x P/E

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 24.1x

Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $160.29 from 53 analysts, using a 35% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $107.82 per share.

Warnings

The company's reported profits differ from official accounting profits by 206%. Check what costs are being left out of the adjusted number.
Wall Street's average price target is $160.29 (from 53 analysts). Our estimate is 50% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Financial statements were converted from CNY into USD using USDCNY at 0.1474 USD per CNY.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples