BBW Build-A-Bear Workshop, Inc.
$36.97
Stable Earnings Power 80%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Strong · Conviction

Undervalued

Trading 56.4% below fair value

You pay $36.97
Bear $74.19
Fair $84.79
Bull $95.39
Bear $74.19 +100.7% $3.99 × 19x P/E
Fair $84.79 +129.4% $3.99 × 22x P/E
Bull $95.39 +158.0% $3.99 × 25x P/E

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (22x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 9.3x

Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $70.00 from 11 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $84.79 per share.

Warnings

Wall Street's average price target is $70.00 (from 11 analysts). Our estimate is 26% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples