BBW
Build-A-Bear Workshop, Inc.
$25.90
Stable Earnings Power
80%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 70.7% below fair value
You pay
$25.90
Bear
$77.43
Fair
$88.49
Bull
$99.55
Bear
$77.43
+198.9%
$3.99 × 19x P/E
Fair
$88.49
+241.6%
$3.99 × 22x P/E
Bull
$99.55
+284.4%
$3.99 × 25x P/E
Adjust Assumptions
22.2x
3.99$
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (22x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
6.5x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (11 analysts)
$38.50
Divergence from AlphaVal
130%
Summary
Applying a 22x P/E to adjusted EPS of $3.99, the base-case value is $88.49 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $38.50 (from 11 analysts). Our estimate is 130% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples