ASTE
Astec Industries, Inc.
$55.45
Platform & Compounding FCF
50%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 138.5% above fair value
You pay
$55.45
Bear
$16.92
Fair
$23.26
Bull
$28.93
Bear
$16.92
-69.5%
4% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Fair
$23.26
-58.1%
7% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Bull
$28.93
-47.8%
9% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (7% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
32%
Implied Market Multiple
31.0x
Market is pricing in (growth)
16.8%
vs 6.6% base
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $36.00 from 12 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $23.26 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $36.00 (from 12 analysts). Our estimate is 44% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions