ASTE
Astec Industries, Inc.
$39.21
Platform & Compounding FCF
50%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Moderate
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 36.4% above fair value
You pay
$39.21
Bear
$21.80
Fair
$28.75
Bull
$34.97
Bear
$21.80
-44.4%
4% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Fair
$28.75
-26.7%
7% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Bull
$34.97
-10.8%
9% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Adjust Assumptions
6.6%
12.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (7% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
32%
Implied Market Multiple
18.5x
Market is pricing in (growth)
9.8%
vs 6.6% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (12 analysts)
$36.00
Divergence from AlphaVal
20%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 7% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 12%, the base-case intrinsic value is $28.75 per share.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions