ARW
Arrow Electronics, Inc.
$217.33
Stable Earnings Power
40%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Mild
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 2.1% below fair value
You pay
$217.33
Bear
$177.57
Fair
$221.96
Bull
$266.35
Bear
$177.57
-18.3%
$15.10 × 12x P/E
Fair
$221.96
+2.1%
$15.10 × 15x P/E
Bull
$266.35
+22.6%
$15.10 × 18x P/E
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
14.4x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $208.33 from 17 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $221.96 per share.
Warnings
The company's reported profits differ from official accounting profits by 38%. Check what costs are being left out of the adjusted number.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples