ARW Arrow Electronics, Inc.
$217.33
Stable Earnings Power 40%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Mild · Conviction

Fair Value

Trading 2.1% below fair value

You pay $217.33
Bear $177.57
Fair $221.96
Bull $266.35
Bear $177.57 -18.3% $15.10 × 12x P/E
Fair $221.96 +2.1% $15.10 × 15x P/E
Bull $266.35 +22.6% $15.10 × 18x P/E

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 14.4x

Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $208.33 from 17 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $221.96 per share.

Warnings

The company's reported profits differ from official accounting profits by 38%. Check what costs are being left out of the adjusted number.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples