ARW
Arrow Electronics, Inc.
$215.97
Stable Earnings Power
40%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Mild
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 4.6% below fair value
You pay
$215.97
Bear
$181.20
Fair
$226.50
Bull
$271.80
Bear
$181.20
-16.1%
$15.10 × 12x P/E
Fair
$226.50
+4.9%
$15.10 × 15x P/E
Bull
$271.80
+25.9%
$15.10 × 18x P/E
Adjust Assumptions
15.0x
15.1$
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
14.3x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (17 analysts)
$225.00
Divergence from AlphaVal
1%
Summary
Applying a 15x P/E to adjusted EPS of $15.10, the base-case value is $226.50 per share.
Warnings
The company's reported profits differ from official accounting profits by 38%. Check what costs are being left out of the adjusted number.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples