ZUMZ
Zumiez Inc.
$14.21
Stable Earnings Power
40%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Moderate
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 35.9% below fair value
You pay
$14.21
Bear
$17.73
Fair
$22.17
Bull
$26.60
Bear
$17.73
+24.8%
$1.48 × 12x P/E
Fair
$22.17
+56.0%
$1.48 × 15x P/E
Bull
$26.60
+87.2%
$1.48 × 18x P/E
Adjust Assumptions
15.0x
1.48$
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
9.6x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (33 analysts)
$19.50
Divergence from AlphaVal
14%
Summary
Applying a 15x P/E to adjusted EPS of $1.48, the base-case value is $22.17 per share.
Warnings
The company's reported profits differ from official accounting profits by 89%. Check what costs are being left out of the adjusted number.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples