ZUMZ
Zumiez Inc.
$23.95
Stable Earnings Power
40%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Moderate
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 28.2% below fair value
You pay
$23.95
Bear
$26.69
Fair
$33.36
Bull
$40.03
Bear
$26.69
+11.4%
$2.62 × 12x P/E
Fair
$33.36
+39.3%
$2.62 × 15x P/E
Bull
$40.03
+67.1%
$2.62 × 18x P/E
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
9.1x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $19.50 from 33 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $33.36 per share.
Warnings
The company's reported profits differ from official accounting profits by 236%. Check what costs are being left out of the adjusted number.
Wall Street's average price target is $19.50 (from 33 analysts). Our estimate is 102% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples