ZTS Zoetis Inc.
$81.32
Stable Earnings Power 80%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Moderate · Conviction

Fair Value

Trading 17.5% below fair value

You pay $81.32
Bear $84.48
Fair $98.56
Bull $112.65
Bear $84.48 +3.9% $6.21 × 12x P/E
Fair $98.56 +21.2% $6.21 × 14x P/E
Bull $112.65 +38.5% $6.21 × 16x P/E

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (14x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 13.1x

Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $125.71 from 30 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $98.56 per share.

Warnings

Wall Street's average price target is $125.71 (from 30 analysts). Our estimate is 31% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples