ZM
Zoom Communications, Inc.
$94.19
Platform & Compounding FCF
80%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Mild
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 3.1% below fair value
You pay
$94.19
Bear
$87.09
Fair
$97.20
Bull
$105.97
Bear
$87.09
-7.5%
3% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$97.20
+3.2%
5% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$105.97
+12.5%
7% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Adjust Assumptions
5.3%
11.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (5% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
35%
Implied Market Multiple
14.6x
Market is pricing in (growth)
4.7%
vs 5.3% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (49 analysts)
$118.08
Divergence from AlphaVal
18%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 5% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $97.20 per share.
Warnings
Stock-based employee pay equals 40% of profits. This dilutes existing shareholders, so cash flow alone overstates what owners really earn.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions