ZIP ZipRecruiter, Inc.
$4.42
Stable Earnings Power 40%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Strong · Conviction

Overvalued

Trading 84.6% above fair value

You pay $4.42
Bear $1.92
Fair $2.39
Bull $2.87
Bear $1.92 -56.7% $0.16 × 12x P/E
Fair $2.39 -45.8% $0.16 × 15x P/E
Bull $2.87 -35.0% $0.16 × 18x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

15.0x
0.16$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 27.7x

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.

Average Target (8 analysts) $4.75
Divergence from AlphaVal 50%

Summary

Applying a 15x P/E to adjusted EPS of $0.16, the base-case value is $2.39 per share.

Warnings

Wall Street's average price target is $4.75 (from 8 analysts). Our estimate is 50% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples