ZIP ZipRecruiter, Inc.
$3.87
Stable Earnings Power 40%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Strong · Conviction

Undervalued

Trading 40.6% below fair value

You pay $3.87
Bear $5.22
Fair $6.52
Bull $7.82
Bear $5.22 +34.8% $0.48 × 12x P/E
Fair $6.52 +68.4% $0.48 × 15x P/E
Bull $7.82 +102.2% $0.48 × 18x P/E

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 8.0x

Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $3.50 from 8 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $6.52 per share.

Warnings

Wall Street's average price target is $3.50 (from 8 analysts). Our estimate is 108% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples