ZION
Zions Bancorporation, National Association
$62.12
Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers
85%
P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality
Moderate
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 29.4% below fair value
You pay
$62.12
Bear
$61.58
Fair
$87.97
Bull
$114.36
Bear
$61.58
-0.9%
ROTCE 11.1% → 1.47x TBV
Fair
$87.97
+41.6%
ROTCE 14.8% → 2.24x TBV
Bull
$114.36
+84.1%
ROTCE 17.0% → 2.70x TBV
Key Value Driver
ROTCE (14.8%) vs. cost of equity (8.8%)
Implied Market Multiple
1.5x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $68.55 from 50 analysts, using a 35% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $87.97 per share.
Warnings
Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
Dividend-based valuation: $34.70 (65% below our primary estimate). Large gaps suggest the dividend may not fully reflect the company's value.
Wall Street's average price target is $68.55 (from 50 analysts). Our estimate is 44% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
- Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
- Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly