ZION
Zions Bancorporation, National Association
$69.52
Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers
85%
P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality
Moderate
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 23.1% below fair value
You pay
$69.52
Bear
$63.32
Fair
$90.45
Bull
$117.59
Bear
$63.32
-8.9%
ROTCE 11.1% → 1.52x TBV
Fair
$90.45
+30.1%
ROTCE 14.8% → 2.31x TBV
Bull
$117.59
+69.1%
ROTCE 17.0% → 2.79x TBV
Key Value Driver
ROTCE (14.8%) vs. cost of equity (8.7%)
Implied Market Multiple
1.67x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $75.64 from 51 analysts, using a 35% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $90.45 per share.
Warnings
Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
Dividend-based valuation: $35.73 (64% below our primary estimate). Large gaps suggest the dividend may not fully reflect the company's value.
Wall Street's average price target is $75.64 (from 51 analysts). Our estimate is 30% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
- Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
- Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly