ZBRA Zebra Technologies Corporation
$272.52
Stable Earnings Power 40%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Strong · Conviction

Overvalued

Trading 46.5% above fair value

You pay $272.52
Bear $148.83
Fair $186.03
Bull $223.24
Bear $148.83 -45.4% $9.45 × 12x P/E
Fair $186.03 -31.7% $9.45 × 15x P/E
Bull $223.24 -18.1% $9.45 × 18x P/E

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 28.8x

Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $318.86 from 27 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $186.03 per share.

Warnings

Wall Street's average price target is $318.86 (from 27 analysts). Our estimate is 56% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples