ZBRA
Zebra Technologies Corporation
$386.45
Stable Earnings Power
40%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 215.0% above fair value
You pay
$386.45
Bear
$98.16
Fair
$122.70
Bull
$147.24
Bear
$98.16
-74.6%
$8.18 × 12x P/E
Fair
$122.70
-68.2%
$8.18 × 15x P/E
Bull
$147.24
-61.9%
$8.18 × 18x P/E
Adjust Assumptions
15.0x
8.18$
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
47.2x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (27 analysts)
$377.14
Divergence from AlphaVal
67%
Summary
Applying a 15x P/E to adjusted EPS of $8.18, the base-case value is $122.70 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $377.14 (from 27 analysts). Our estimate is 67% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples