YUMC
Yum China Holdings, Inc.
$44.56
Stable Earnings Power
80%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Moderate
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 19.8% below fair value
You pay
$44.56
Bear
$46.52
Fair
$55.57
Bull
$64.62
Bear
$46.52
+4.4%
$2.53 × 18x P/E
Fair
$55.57
+24.7%
$2.53 × 22x P/E
Bull
$64.62
+45.0%
$2.53 × 25x P/E
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (22x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
17.6x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $59.05 from 19 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $55.57 per share.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples