YUM
Yum! Brands, Inc.
$147.06
Stable Earnings Power
80%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Mild
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 1.7% above fair value
You pay
$147.06
Bear
$122.32
Fair
$144.56
Bull
$166.80
Bear
$122.32
-16.8%
$5.56 × 22x P/E
Fair
$144.56
-1.7%
$5.56 × 26x P/E
Bull
$166.80
+13.4%
$5.56 × 30x P/E
Adjust Assumptions
26.0x
5.56$
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (26x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
26.4x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (51 analysts)
$170.44
Divergence from AlphaVal
15%
Summary
Applying a 26x P/E to adjusted EPS of $5.56, the base-case value is $144.56 per share. DDM cross-check: $158.34.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples