YOU
Clear Secure, Inc.
$44.33
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 67.7% below fair value
You pay
$44.33
Bear
$80.94
Fair
$137.16
Bull
$205.78
Bear
$80.94
+82.6%
11% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$137.16
+209.4%
19% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$205.78
+364.2%
24% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Adjust Assumptions
18.8%
11.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (19% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
45%
Implied Market Multiple
12.0x
Market is pricing in (growth)
2.0%
vs 18.8% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (9 analysts)
$61.75
Divergence from AlphaVal
122%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 19% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $137.16 per share.
Warnings
Stock-based employee pay equals 36% of profits. This dilutes existing shareholders, so cash flow alone overstates what owners really earn.
Wall Street's average price target is $61.75 (from 9 analysts). Our estimate is 122% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions