YOU
Clear Secure, Inc.
$45.27
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 66.2% below fair value
You pay
$45.27
Bear
$79.13
Fair
$134.10
Bull
$201.18
Bear
$79.13
+74.8%
11% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$134.10
+196.2%
19% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$201.18
+344.4%
24% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Adjust Assumptions
18.8%
11.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (19% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
45%
Implied Market Multiple
12.6x
Market is pricing in (growth)
2.7%
vs 18.8% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (9 analysts)
$61.40
Divergence from AlphaVal
118%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 19% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $134.10 per share.
Warnings
Stock-based employee pay equals 36% of profits. This dilutes existing shareholders, so cash flow alone overstates what owners really earn.
Wall Street's average price target is $61.40 (from 9 analysts). Our estimate is 118% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions