YMM
Full Truck Alliance Co. Ltd.
$8.36
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 62.8% below fair value
You pay
$8.36
Bear
$14.95
Fair
$22.46
Bull
$30.96
Bear
$14.95
+78.8%
9% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$22.46
+168.6%
16% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$30.96
+270.3%
20% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (16% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
43%
Implied Market Multiple
9.8x
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 16% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $22.46 per share.
Warnings
Financial statements were converted from CNY into USD using USDCNY at 0.1474 USD per CNY.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions