YMM
Full Truck Alliance Co. Ltd.
$8.12
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 71.4% below fair value
You pay
$8.12
Bear
$17.08
Fair
$28.39
Bull
$42.27
Bear
$17.08
+110.5%
11% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$28.39
+249.9%
19% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$42.27
+420.8%
25% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Adjust Assumptions
19.0%
11.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (19% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
46%
Implied Market Multiple
9.3x
Market is pricing in (growth)
-1.6%
vs 19.0% base
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 19% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $28.39 per share.
Warnings
Financial statements were converted from CNY into USD using USDCNY at 0.1491 USD per CNY.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions