YMM
Full Truck Alliance Co. Ltd.
$8.30
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 69.8% below fair value
You pay
$8.30
Bear
$16.84
Fair
$27.51
Bull
$40.43
Bear
$16.84
+102.9%
11% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$27.51
+231.5%
18% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$40.43
+387.1%
24% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Adjust Assumptions
18.4%
11.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (18% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
45%
Implied Market Multiple
9.5x
Market is pricing in (growth)
-1.3%
vs 18.4% base
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 18% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $27.51 per share.
Warnings
Financial statements were converted from CNY into USD using USDCNY at 0.1502 USD per CNY.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions