YMM
Full Truck Alliance Co. Ltd.
$9.29
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 53.3% below fair value
You pay
$9.29
Bear
$13.96
Fair
$19.90
Bull
$26.33
Bear
$13.96
+50.3%
8% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$19.90
+114.2%
14% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$26.33
+183.5%
18% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (14% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
42%
Implied Market Multiple
11.3x
Market is pricing in (growth)
1.2%
vs 13.9% base
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 14% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $19.90 per share.
Warnings
Financial statements were converted from CNY into USD using USDCNY at 0.1479 USD per CNY.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions