YEXT
Yext, Inc.
$5.43
High-Growth Software
80%
Revenue × Terminal Margin DCF
Moderate
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 21.6% below fair value
Bear
$8.26
+52.1%
8% rev growth, 17% terminal margin
Fair
$6.92
+27.5%
1% rev growth, 23% terminal margin
Bull
$7.91
+45.6%
1% rev growth, 26% terminal margin
Key Value Driver
Revenue growth (1%) × margin expansion to 23%
Terminal Value % of EV
51%
Implied Market Multiple
1.5x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a discounted cash flow model based on revenue growth and long-run free cash flow margins. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $8.20 from 17 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $6.92 per share.
Key Risks
- Current FCF misleads — the model values future margins, not today's cash
- SBC dilution is the hidden tax: 2-4% annual share growth compounds fast
- Revenue deceleration is inevitable — the question is when and how steep