YEXT
Yext, Inc.
$7.00
High-Growth Software
80%
Revenue × Terminal Margin DCF
Mild
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 13.1% below fair value
Bear
$9.65
+38.0%
8% rev growth, 17% terminal margin
Fair
$8.05
+15.1%
1% rev growth, 23% terminal margin
Bull
$9.16
+30.9%
1% rev growth, 26% terminal margin
Adjust Assumptions
1.0%
23.0%
12.0%
Key Value Driver
Revenue growth (1%) × margin expansion to 23%
Terminal Value % of EV
50%
Implied Market Multiple
1.6x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (17 analysts)
$8.20
Divergence from AlphaVal
2%
Summary
Projecting 1% revenue growth with FCF margins expanding from 14% to 23% over 10 years, discounted at 12%, the base-case value is $8.05 per share.
Key Risks
- Current FCF misleads — the model values future margins, not today's cash
- SBC dilution is the hidden tax: 2-4% annual share growth compounds fast
- Revenue deceleration is inevitable — the question is when and how steep