YEXT
Yext, Inc.
$6.91
High-Growth Software
80%
Revenue × Terminal Margin DCF
Mild
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 13.4% below fair value
Bear
$9.53
+37.9%
8% rev growth, 17% terminal margin
Fair
$7.98
+15.4%
1% rev growth, 23% terminal margin
Bull
$9.08
+31.4%
1% rev growth, 26% terminal margin
Adjust Assumptions
1.0%
23.0%
12.0%
Key Value Driver
Revenue growth (1%) × margin expansion to 23%
Terminal Value % of EV
50%
Implied Market Multiple
1.6x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (17 analysts)
$8.20
Divergence from AlphaVal
3%
Summary
Projecting 1% revenue growth with FCF margins expanding from 14% to 23% over 10 years, discounted at 12%, the base-case value is $7.98 per share.
Key Risks
- Current FCF misleads — the model values future margins, not today's cash
- SBC dilution is the hidden tax: 2-4% annual share growth compounds fast
- Revenue deceleration is inevitable — the question is when and how steep