YETI
YETI Holdings, Inc.
$48.91
Platform & Compounding FCF
50%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Moderate
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 26.1% above fair value
You pay
$48.91
Bear
$31.63
Fair
$38.79
Bull
$45.28
Bear
$31.63
-35.3%
4% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Fair
$38.79
-20.7%
7% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Bull
$45.28
-7.4%
9% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (7% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
32%
Implied Market Multiple
21.2x
Market is pricing in (growth)
11.7%
vs 7.1% base
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $50.22 from 22 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $38.79 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $50.22 (from 22 analysts). Our estimate is 30% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions