YETI
YETI Holdings, Inc.
$43.07
Platform & Compounding FCF
50%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Moderate
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 18.1% above fair value
You pay
$43.07
Bear
$29.70
Fair
$36.46
Bull
$42.58
Bear
$29.70
-31.0%
4% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Fair
$36.46
-15.3%
7% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Bull
$42.58
-1.1%
9% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Adjust Assumptions
7.1%
12.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (7% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
32%
Implied Market Multiple
18.0x
Market is pricing in (growth)
9.4%
vs 7.1% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (22 analysts)
$56.10
Divergence from AlphaVal
35%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 7% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 12%, the base-case intrinsic value is $36.46 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $56.10 (from 22 analysts). Our estimate is 35% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions