YETI
YETI Holdings, Inc.
$41.43
Platform & Compounding FCF
50%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Moderate
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 18.6% above fair value
You pay
$41.43
Bear
$28.53
Fair
$34.94
Bull
$40.74
Bear
$28.53
-31.1%
4% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Fair
$34.94
-15.7%
7% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Bull
$40.74
-1.7%
9% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Adjust Assumptions
7.0%
12.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (7% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
32%
Implied Market Multiple
18.0x
Market is pricing in (growth)
9.4%
vs 7.0% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (22 analysts)
$56.75
Divergence from AlphaVal
38%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 7% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 12%, the base-case intrinsic value is $34.94 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $56.75 (from 22 analysts). Our estimate is 38% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions