YETI
YETI Holdings, Inc.
$45.22
Platform & Compounding FCF
50%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Moderate
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 17.1% above fair value
You pay
$45.22
Bear
$31.60
Fair
$38.63
Bull
$44.97
Bear
$31.60
-30.1%
4% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Fair
$38.63
-14.6%
7% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Bull
$44.97
-0.5%
9% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (7% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
32%
Implied Market Multiple
19.7x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $50.44 from 22 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $38.63 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $50.44 (from 22 analysts). Our estimate is 31% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions