YELP Yelp Inc.
$26.36
Platform & Compounding FCF 80%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong · Conviction

Undervalued

Trading 60.2% below fair value

You pay $26.36
Bear $61.60
Fair $66.15
Bull $71.91
Bear $61.60 +133.7% 3% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair $66.15 +151.0% 4% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull $71.91 +172.8% 5% stage 1 growth, 11% discount

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (4% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 34%
Implied Market Multiple 3.6x
Market is pricing in (growth) -16.6% vs 4.0% base

Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $27.33 from 67 analysts, using a 35% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $66.15 per share.

Warnings

Wall Street's average price target is $27.33 (from 67 analysts). Our estimate is 219% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions