XPRO
Expro Group Holdings N.V.
$16.93
Oil & Gas E&P
85%
FCF at Price Deck × Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 352.1% above fair value
You pay
$16.93
Bear
$2.13
Fair
$3.74
Bull
$5.77
Bear
$2.13
-87.4%
FCF $27M × 10x
Fair
$3.74
-77.9%
FCF $34M × 13x
Bull
$5.77
-65.9%
FCF $42M × 16x
Adjust Assumptions
75.0$/bbl
13.0x
Key Value Driver
Oil price assumption ($75/bbl base case)
Implied Market Multiple
56.0x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (20 analysts)
$19.00
Divergence from AlphaVal
80%
Summary
At $75/bbl oil with a 13x EV/FCF multiple, intrinsic value is $3.74 per share. Range: $2.13 (bear) to $5.77 (bull).
Warnings
If oil drops to $60/barrel, the stock could fall -87%. Check whether the company can survive at low prices and still pay its dividend.
Where you think oil prices will settle long-term drives over 80% of this valuation. The biggest risk isn't the company itself — it's getting the commodity price wrong.
Wall Street's average price target is $19.00 (from 20 analysts). Our estimate is 80% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — commodity volumes do not compound
- Geopolitical premiums are real but historically temporary
- Reserve replacement ratio below 100% for 3 years is existential