XPOF
Xponential Fitness, Inc.
$5.01
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 86.4% below fair value
You pay
$4.95
Bear
$17.31
Fair
$36.36
Bull
$58.19
Bear
$17.31
+249.7%
10% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$36.36
+634.5%
16% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$58.19
+1075.6%
21% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Adjust Assumptions
16.2%
11.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (16% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
44%
Implied Market Multiple
12.5x
Market is pricing in (growth)
2.6%
vs 16.2% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (15 analysts)
$5.80
Divergence from AlphaVal
527%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 16% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $36.36 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $5.80 (from 15 analysts). Our estimate is 527% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions