XPEL
XPEL, Inc.
$44.71
Stable Earnings Power
80%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Moderate
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 39.5% below fair value
You pay
$44.71
Bear
$62.48
Fair
$73.84
Bull
$85.20
Bear
$62.48
+39.7%
$1.99 × 33x P/E
Fair
$73.84
+65.2%
$1.99 × 39x P/E
Bull
$85.20
+90.6%
$1.99 × 45x P/E
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (39x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
22.4x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $58.00 from 6 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $73.84 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $58.00 (from 6 analysts). Our estimate is 34% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples