XPEL
XPEL, Inc.
$49.76
Stable Earnings Power
80%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Moderate
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 31.0% below fair value
You pay
$49.76
Bear
$61.05
Fair
$72.15
Bull
$83.25
Bear
$61.05
+22.7%
$1.85 × 33x P/E
Fair
$72.15
+45.0%
$1.85 × 39x P/E
Bull
$83.25
+67.3%
$1.85 × 45x P/E
Adjust Assumptions
39.0x
1.85$
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (39x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
26.9x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (6 analysts)
$65.00
Divergence from AlphaVal
11%
Summary
Applying a 39x P/E to adjusted EPS of $1.85, the base-case value is $72.15 per share.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples