XOM
Exxon Mobil Corporation
$154.92
Oil & Gas E&P
85%
FCF at Price Deck × Multiple
Moderate
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 38.7% above fair value
You pay
$154.92
Bear
$67.34
Fair
$111.68
Bull
$165.19
Bear
$67.34
-56.5%
FCF $20070M × 12x
Fair
$111.68
-27.9%
FCF $23612M × 16x
Bull
$165.19
+6.6%
FCF $27154M × 20x
Key Value Driver
Oil price assumption ($75/bbl base case)
Implied Market Multiple
28.6x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on free cash flow under different commodity price assumptions and a valuation multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $164.54 from 55 analysts, using a 35% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $111.68 per share.
Warnings
Where you think oil prices will settle long-term drives over 80% of this valuation. The biggest risk isn't the company itself — it's getting the commodity price wrong.
Wall Street's average price target is $164.54 (from 55 analysts). Our estimate is 49% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — commodity volumes do not compound
- Geopolitical premiums are real but historically temporary
- Reserve replacement ratio below 100% for 3 years is existential