XOM
Exxonmobil Holdings Corporation
$177.24
Oil & Gas E&P
85%
FCF at Price Deck × Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 108.7% above fair value
You pay
$177.24
Bear
$51.25
Fair
$84.91
Bull
$125.52
Bear
$51.25
-71.1%
FCF $20440M × 12x
Fair
$84.91
-52.1%
FCF $24047M × 16x
Bull
$125.52
-29.2%
FCF $27654M × 20x
Adjust Assumptions
75.0$/bbl
16.0x
Key Value Driver
Oil price assumption ($75/bbl base case)
Implied Market Multiple
31.9x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (55 analysts)
$166.67
Divergence from AlphaVal
49%
Summary
At $75/bbl oil with a 16x EV/FCF multiple, intrinsic value is $84.91 per share. Range: $51.25 (bear) to $125.52 (bull).
Warnings
If oil drops to $60/barrel, the stock could fall -71%. Check whether the company can survive at low prices and still pay its dividend.
Where you think oil prices will settle long-term drives over 80% of this valuation. The biggest risk isn't the company itself — it's getting the commodity price wrong.
Wall Street's average price target is $166.67 (from 55 analysts). Our estimate is 49% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — commodity volumes do not compound
- Geopolitical premiums are real but historically temporary
- Reserve replacement ratio below 100% for 3 years is existential