XOM
Exxon Mobil Corporation
$156.70
Oil & Gas E&P
85%
FCF at Price Deck × Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 84.6% above fair value
You pay
$156.70
Bear
$51.25
Fair
$84.91
Bull
$125.52
Bear
$51.25
-67.3%
FCF $20440M × 12x
Fair
$84.91
-45.8%
FCF $24047M × 16x
Bull
$125.52
-19.9%
FCF $27654M × 20x
Adjust Assumptions
75.0$/bbl
16.0x
Key Value Driver
Oil price assumption ($75/bbl base case)
Implied Market Multiple
28.4x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (55 analysts)
$171.17
Divergence from AlphaVal
50%
Summary
At $75/bbl oil with a 16x EV/FCF multiple, intrinsic value is $84.91 per share. Range: $51.25 (bear) to $125.52 (bull).
Warnings
Where you think oil prices will settle long-term drives over 80% of this valuation. The biggest risk isn't the company itself — it's getting the commodity price wrong.
Wall Street's average price target is $171.17 (from 55 analysts). Our estimate is 50% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — commodity volumes do not compound
- Geopolitical premiums are real but historically temporary
- Reserve replacement ratio below 100% for 3 years is existential