XHR
Xenia Hotels & Resorts, Inc.
$19.16
Real Estate Investment Trust
85%
P/FFO × Default REIT Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 46.2% below fair value
You pay
$19.16
Bear
$29.43
Fair
$35.63
Bull
$41.84
Bear
$29.43
+53.6%
$2.10 FFO × 18x
Fair
$35.63
+86.0%
$2.10 FFO × 22x
Bull
$41.84
+118.4%
$2.10 FFO × 26x
Adjust Assumptions
22.1x
$
Key Value Driver
FFO/share ($2.10) × default P/FFO multiple
Implied Market Multiple
9.1x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (10 analysts)
$21.17
Divergence from AlphaVal
68%
Summary
At $2.10 FFO/share with a 22x default REIT multiple, the base-case value is $35.63 per share. Dividend yield: 2.9%. DDM cross-check: $10.44.
Warnings
Standard profit figures are misleading for real estate companies — large non-cash accounting charges make profits look artificially low. Dividend yield and funds from operations are better measures.
Dividend-based valuation: $10.44 (71% below our primary estimate). Large gaps suggest the dividend may not fully reflect the company's value.
Wall Street's average price target is $21.17 (from 10 analysts). Our estimate is 68% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E and EV/EBITDA are structurally wrong for REITs — use P/FFO and NAV
- Interest rate sensitivity: REIT multiples compress when rates rise
- FFO approximation (NI + D&A) may include gains on property sales — verify