XHR
Xenia Hotels & Resorts, Inc.
$16.82
Real Estate Investment Trust
85%
P/FFO × Default REIT Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 47.6% below fair value
You pay
$16.82
Bear
$26.52
Fair
$32.10
Bull
$37.70
Bear
$26.52
+57.7%
$2.10 FFO × 18x
Fair
$32.10
+90.9%
$2.10 FFO × 22x
Bull
$37.70
+124.1%
$2.10 FFO × 26x
Key Value Driver
FFO/share ($2.10) × default P/FFO multiple
Implied Market Multiple
8.0x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses P/FFO × Default REIT Multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $18.00 from 10 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $32.10 per share.
Warnings
Standard profit figures are misleading for real estate companies — large non-cash accounting charges make profits look artificially low. Dividend yield and funds from operations are better measures.
Dividend-based valuation: $10.44 (71% below our primary estimate). Large gaps suggest the dividend may not fully reflect the company's value.
Wall Street's average price target is $18.00 (from 10 analysts). Our estimate is 98% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E and EV/EBITDA are structurally wrong for REITs — use P/FFO and NAV
- Interest rate sensitivity: REIT multiples compress when rates rise
- FFO approximation (NI + D&A) may include gains on property sales — verify