XERS
Xeris Biopharma Holdings, Inc.
$7.45
High-Growth Software
80%
Revenue × Terminal Margin DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 60.9% below fair value
You pay
$7.45
Bear
$8.30
Fair
$19.07
Bull
$27.56
Bear
$8.30
+11.4%
18% rev growth, 21% terminal margin
Fair
$19.07
+156.0%
30% rev growth, 28% terminal margin
Bull
$27.56
+270.0%
35% rev growth, 32% terminal margin
Adjust Assumptions
30.0%
28.0%
12.0%
Key Value Driver
Revenue growth (30%) × margin expansion to 28%
Terminal Value % of EV
61%
Implied Market Multiple
4.2x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (11 analysts)
$14.00
Divergence from AlphaVal
36%
Summary
Projecting 30% revenue growth with FCF margins expanding from 20% to 28% over 10 years, discounted at 12%, the base-case value is $19.07 per share.
Warnings
Gross margin of 82% means each dollar of revenue is highly profitable. As the company grows, overhead costs should shrink as a share of revenue, boosting overall profits.
Wall Street's average price target is $14.00 (from 11 analysts). Our estimate is 36% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Current FCF misleads — the model values future margins, not today's cash
- SBC dilution is the hidden tax: 2-4% annual share growth compounds fast
- Revenue deceleration is inevitable — the question is when and how steep