XERS
Xeris Biopharma Holdings, Inc.
$10.21
High-Growth Software
80%
Revenue × Terminal Margin DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 43.5% below fair value
You pay
$10.21
Bear
$7.86
Fair
$18.06
Bull
$26.10
Bear
$7.86
-23.1%
18% rev growth, 21% terminal margin
Fair
$18.06
+76.9%
30% rev growth, 28% terminal margin
Bull
$26.10
+155.6%
35% rev growth, 32% terminal margin
Adjust Assumptions
30.0%
28.0%
12.0%
Key Value Driver
Revenue growth (30%) × margin expansion to 28%
Terminal Value % of EV
61%
Implied Market Multiple
6.1x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (11 analysts)
$15.00
Divergence from AlphaVal
20%
Summary
Projecting 30% revenue growth with FCF margins expanding from 20% to 28% over 10 years, discounted at 12%, the base-case value is $18.06 per share.
Warnings
Gross margin of 82% means each dollar of revenue is highly profitable. As the company grows, overhead costs should shrink as a share of revenue, boosting overall profits.
Key Risks
- Current FCF misleads — the model values future margins, not today's cash
- SBC dilution is the hidden tax: 2-4% annual share growth compounds fast
- Revenue deceleration is inevitable — the question is when and how steep