XEL
Xcel Energy Inc.
$79.25
Stable Earnings Power
85%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Moderate
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 23.5% above fair value
You pay
$79.25
Bear
$56.13
Fair
$64.14
Bull
$72.16
Bear
$56.13
-29.2%
$3.42 × 14x P/E
Fair
$64.14
-19.1%
$3.42 × 16x P/E
Bull
$72.16
-8.9%
$3.42 × 18x P/E
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (16x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
23.2x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $92.42 from 27 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $64.14 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $92.42 (from 27 analysts). Our estimate is 41% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples