XEL
Xcel Energy Inc.
$73.36
Stable Earnings Power
85%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Moderate
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 34.1% above fair value
You pay
$73.36
Bear
$47.88
Fair
$54.72
Bull
$61.56
Bear
$47.88
-34.7%
$3.42 × 14x P/E
Fair
$54.72
-25.4%
$3.42 × 16x P/E
Bull
$61.56
-16.1%
$3.42 × 18x P/E
Adjust Assumptions
16.0x
3.42$
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (16x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
21.5x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (27 analysts)
$90.83
Divergence from AlphaVal
40%
Summary
Applying a 16x P/E to adjusted EPS of $3.42, the base-case value is $54.72 per share. DDM cross-check: $62.43.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $90.83 (from 27 analysts). Our estimate is 40% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples