XEL
Xcel Energy Inc.
$81.08
Stable Earnings Power
85%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Moderate
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 27.4% above fair value
You pay
$81.08
Bear
$55.68
Fair
$63.63
Bull
$71.58
Bear
$55.68
-31.3%
$3.42 × 14x P/E
Fair
$63.63
-21.5%
$3.42 × 16x P/E
Bull
$71.58
-11.7%
$3.42 × 18x P/E
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (16x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
23.7x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $90.36 from 27 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $63.63 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $90.36 (from 27 analysts). Our estimate is 39% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples