WYNN
Wynn Resorts, Limited
$75.60
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Moderate
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 21.2% below fair value
You pay
$75.60
Bear
$57.11
Fair
$95.88
Bull
$131.55
Bear
$57.11
-24.5%
5% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$95.88
+26.8%
8% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$131.55
+74.0%
10% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Adjust Assumptions
7.5%
11.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (8% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
37%
Implied Market Multiple
16.1x
Market is pricing in (growth)
6.0%
vs 7.5% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (45 analysts)
$131.10
Divergence from AlphaVal
27%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 8% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $95.88 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $131.10 (from 45 analysts). Our estimate is 27% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions