WYNN
Wynn Resorts, Limited
$92.75
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Mild
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 8.5% below fair value
You pay
$92.75
Bear
$59.62
Fair
$101.41
Bull
$140.30
Bear
$59.62
-35.7%
5% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$101.41
+9.3%
8% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$140.30
+51.3%
10% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Adjust Assumptions
8.0%
11.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (8% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
37%
Implied Market Multiple
17.7x
Market is pricing in (growth)
7.4%
vs 8.0% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (45 analysts)
$131.80
Divergence from AlphaVal
23%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 8% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $101.41 per share.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions