WYNN
Wynn Resorts, Limited
$97.24
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 83.6% above fair value
You pay
$97.24
Bear
$0.00
Fair
$52.95
Bull
$133.29
Bear
$0.00
-100.0%
5% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$52.95
-45.5%
8% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$133.29
+37.1%
11% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (8% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
37%
Implied Market Multiple
32.6x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $141.00 from 45 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $52.95 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $141.00 (from 45 analysts). Our estimate is 89% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions