WY
Weyerhaeuser Company
$19.61
Real Estate Investment Trust
85%
P/FFO × Specialty REIT Multiple
Moderate
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 26.1% below fair value
You pay
$19.61
Bear
$21.79
Fair
$26.54
Bull
$31.29
Bear
$21.79
+11.1%
$1.16 FFO × 22x
Fair
$26.54
+35.3%
$1.16 FFO × 27x
Bull
$31.29
+59.6%
$1.16 FFO × 32x
Adjust Assumptions
27.0x
$
Key Value Driver
FFO/share ($1.16) × specialty P/FFO multiple
Implied Market Multiple
17.0x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (25 analysts)
$28.25
Divergence from AlphaVal
6%
Summary
At $1.16 FFO/share with a 27x specialty REIT multiple, the base-case value is $26.54 per share. Dividend yield: 4.3%. DDM cross-check: $15.65.
Warnings
Standard profit figures are misleading for real estate companies — large non-cash accounting charges make profits look artificially low. Dividend yield and funds from operations are better measures.
Dividend-based valuation: $15.65 (41% below our primary estimate). Large gaps suggest the dividend may not fully reflect the company's value.
Key Risks
- P/E and EV/EBITDA are structurally wrong for REITs — use P/FFO and NAV
- Interest rate sensitivity: REIT multiples compress when rates rise
- FFO approximation (NI + D&A) may include gains on property sales — verify