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Wolverine World Wide, Inc.
$19.43
Stable Earnings Power
80%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Mild
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 6.5% above fair value
You pay
$19.43
Bear
$15.96
Fair
$18.24
Bull
$20.52
Bear
$15.96
-17.9%
$1.14 × 14x P/E
Fair
$18.24
-6.1%
$1.14 × 16x P/E
Bull
$20.52
+5.6%
$1.14 × 18x P/E
Adjust Assumptions
16.0x
1.14$
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (16x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
17.0x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (39 analysts)
$25.38
Divergence from AlphaVal
28%
Summary
Applying a 16x P/E to adjusted EPS of $1.14, the base-case value is $18.24 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $25.38 (from 39 analysts). Our estimate is 28% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples