WWD
Woodward, Inc.
$335.51
Platform & Compounding FCF
70%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 237.5% above fair value
You pay
$335.51
Bear
$78.65
Fair
$99.41
Bull
$118.44
Bear
$78.65
-76.6%
4% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$99.41
-70.4%
7% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$118.44
-64.7%
10% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Adjust Assumptions
7.4%
11.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (7% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
37%
Implied Market Multiple
57.4x
Market is pricing in (growth)
23.0%
vs 7.4% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (21 analysts)
$422.00
Divergence from AlphaVal
76%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 7% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $99.41 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $422.00 (from 21 analysts). Our estimate is 76% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions