WWD
Woodward, Inc.
$351.36
Platform & Compounding FCF
70%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 101.2% above fair value
You pay
$351.36
Bear
$137.86
Fair
$174.64
Bull
$208.35
Bear
$137.86
-60.8%
4% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$174.64
-50.3%
7% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$208.35
-40.7%
10% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (7% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
37%
Implied Market Multiple
67.4x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $435.00 from 20 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $174.64 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $435.00 (from 20 analysts). Our estimate is 80% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions